Tonight, the Sustainable Development class returned to Dallas and joined another UTA class to hear a lecture by Dr. Michael Buckley and Dr. Ed Nelson. It was very interesting and some really exciting ideas were presented. Dr. Nelson began the lecture by emphasizing the need to rethink the traditional approach to development with the overall goal of achieving a density of 36 housing units to the acre and reducing urban sprawl by centralizing development around CBDs and TODs with an emphasis on connectivity. The premise of higher density is an interesting one that is counter-intuitive to today's suburban development mentality, especially here in Texas. Dr. Buckley concluded the lecture by talking about the different aspects of higher density developments and showed us a variety of creative examples.
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| Battery Powered Car |
In the lecture, rising fuel prices are cited as a major reason why higher density developments in and around urban areas are a good idea. Centralizing people around the workplace eliminates much of the driving that takes place during the week. Since we are entering a period of peak oil conditions and prolonged unrest in the Middle East, this is a very good idea. Definitely, there is a need to take a closer look at urban developments and redevelopment projects that achieve higher densities as well as create more transit oriented developments. However, it's too early to count out suburban developments which will continue to provide the type of affordable lifestyle that is desirable to much of the population.
The lecture in Dallas also really got me thinking about the future. Although things are very difficult fiscally and politically right now, to me the future looks more stable, not less so, and more democratic, not less so. I see a period of prosperity on the horizon as a result of places like Egypt and other developing nations and economies across the globe moving toward free-market systems and democratic forms of government. Fortunately for us, Karl Marx was wrong. This fact, in conjunction with advancements in alternative energy as well as advancements in technology that will allow traditional fossil fuels around the world to be discovered, extracted, and processed at lower costs with less damage to the environment, will stabilize fuel prices at a much lower price over time. Already, fluctuations in gas prices are less a product of supply and demand factors and more the result of psychological factors such as the fear of radical Islamic terrorist groups. During this period of global prosperity, many ideas such as green building will become mainstream.
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2011 Protests in Egypt
Rulers Beware! |
Right now, a brighter future is very difficult for some to imagine because of what is going on in many hot spots around the world. A good example is the current unrest in the Middle East. On the surface, this unrest seems like a major problem for world security and for the world's oil supply, but these protests are not the product of extremists as some have suggested. Instead, the protest movements appear to be moving forward as a result of people who want to control their own destiny and have access to opportunities similar to their western counterparts. Aside from controlling the world's oil supply, what is happening in the Middle East is very important to the rest of the world, and the protests bring us full circle back to suburban America. Just like the protesters in the Middle East want more freedom, people all around the globe, including here in America, want the freedom to make choices that affect their lives. Whether in America, Yemen, Greece, China, Great Britain, or Russia, it all comes down to people's desire to have basic freedoms.
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| Traditional Guassian Bell Curve |
The truth is people want options, not limitations. Of course, things like gas prices do influence behavior as the price for a gallon of gas continues to rise, people look around and inventory their options. One option is mass transit. Another option is more fuel efficient vehicles. This is a more likely solution in many parts of the country such as Texas. For instance, the freeway system in Texas is likely to morph into a 'pay to play' system of public lanes and toll lanes that moves traffic more effectively between suburban and urban areas. Additionally, if gas prices do stabilize in the future at a lower price than many are predicting, the world will continue to move in a more stable and more progressive direction, not the other way around. What people really want most of all is options, and the Internet is rapidly destroying the myth that options don't exist. This shift from forced choice options to a full spectrum of options is occurring everywhere - in retail, in politics, and in housing - around the world. This new paradigm compels us to move away from methodologies based solely on traditional bell curves which might be both challenging and tiresome to cultures that have been reared on the idea that every decision circles around a few choices that hover close to the middle. On the other hand, those cultures that are able to embrace this new paradigm will make the greatest economic and social progress in the future.
What last night's lecture revealed to me is that this radical shift which is underway around the world is prompted by an unprecedented access to information and a swelling population of young people who want change, opportunity, and options. Providing options will mean that some people will opt for a suburban lifestyle and some will opt for the urban lifestyle. That's okay. It means that some will recycle and some will not. That's okay too. Maybe those who choose not to ultimately pay more for garbage pickup. However, any business or governmental legislation that attempts to overcome or undermine the fundamental truth that people want freedom of choice will ultimately fail. People will always continue to reject efforts to be coerced, regardless of whether we are talking about influencing people to choose mass transit over personal autos or to embrace mandated recycling programs. In short, you get more of what you reward and less of what you don't, and an educated populace will come to its own conclusion, rightly or wrongly, about how and when to shop and entrepreneurs will continue to deliver what the populace wants and demands with their pocketbooks.
The question then remains: Is it wise to move forward with higher density developments? Yes, but to think that one option should take precedent over the other is to forget that we are not as good as we might like to think at determining cause and effect relationships, especially when dealing with issues with strong underlying emotional and psychological factors. Furthermore, the world is very much non-linear and still unpredictable in spite of amazing technological advances and predictive models. It shows that, even in the year 2011, we still have much to learn and are often times unable to draw reasonable conclusions from data that, for instance, might otherwise preclude us from building nuclear power plants next to oceans in tsunami prone areas without raising the back-up diesel generators off the floor as was done in Japan,or that preclude us from responding to obvious warning signs because we have falsely determined, as in the case of the recent BP oil spill, that off-shore oil spills are a thing of the past. Most of all, what we have learned from recent events is that, like it or not, black swans do not only exist in nature, they also exist in our everyday lives and our economy as exemplified by the major global financial collapse of 2008 that has cost much of the population a decade. And, knowing all this, we should be compelled to remember that there is wisdom in the masses, and that these masses have, over time in America, moved toward a suburban lifestyle. Most importantly, it should remind us that giving up any reasonable freedom, regardless of the size of that freedom, is dangerous, and that by doing so we set forth down a slippery slope upon which our freedom will slowly erode little by little wherever we live on this planet. If what Lord Bacon said is true that
"Power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely. Great men are almost always bad men."
then politicians, rulers, and dictators, whether clothed in a Muslim thawb in Dubai or a business suit in America, need to embrace the concept of real freedom and truth or face the consequences just like the current leaders in places like Yemen and Libya. The status quo isn't good enough anymore.
The key then is to neither fear change nor force it but instead to embrace it. Embracing positive change such as green building will cause us to move away from polluting our environment to a more sustainable lifestyle just like providing real choices and real incentives to individuals and businesses will create more prosperity. However, forcing change by offering too many government incentives is not the answer. Doing so merely creates anti-competitive situations in a market that is suppose to be driven by free-market principles. Public/private partnerships are certainly a better solution, but keeping government out of the free-market system as much as possible is the best solution of all. Just think about the impact that free-market companies like Apple and Google are having with no governmental assistance whatsoever and you quickly see that the major revolution which is underway has to do with increasingly broader access to information and widening choices and options for people around the world. This global access to more reliable information has caused western ideas to take root in places and ways that were previously deemed impossible. These ideas are being embraced around the world and they are wrapped up in the hearts and minds of the millions of young people across the globe who want better access to education, higher-paying jobs, a brighter future, and most of all choice! And that is worth building a sustainable future upon; one that, in my opinion, will have some bumps in the road but looks very positive nonetheless.
Green building, mass transit, and higher density developments will certainly play a key role in our society, but they will not supplant the growth of suburbs, at least in places where land is plentiful such as Texas. In the end, it will be necessary to provide connections and linkages between suburban areas and urban areas with efficient light rail systems and optional toll roads. This trend is already underway around the Metroplex -- the UTA downtown campuses in the CBDs of Dallas and Fort Worth are great examples. Thanks to Dr. Nelson and Dr. Buckley for letting us sit in on your informative lecture, and here's to better days ahead for sustainable developments, America, and the rest of the world!
